Is there still time to save the planet? The answer of science is: yes, but you have to run. The most recent report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in March confirmed the trend of global warming to 1.1C above pre-industrial levels. It becomes more urgent to take ambitious and immediate action in order to ensure a sustainable and livable future for all. An innovative way to design this recently proposed roadmap includes positive tipping points

The logic is this: Right now, mitigation efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions are still insufficient and put us on the daunting path of points of no return, tipping points. The term refers to critical "turning points" of the Earth system, triggered by the climate crisis. Each of these points, if reached, indicates irreversible and feedback changes, leading to a domino effect of severe negative consequences around the world.

This is the case with the melting of ice in the Arctic, Greenland, West Antarctica and two areas of East Antarctica; the collapse of the marine current called the Atlantic Meridional Rotation (or Amoc); the destruction of 25% of the Amazon; and the loss of permafrost (the layer of frozen soil in northern Asia, Europe, and North America). In the case of Brazil, a September 2022 Science survey showed that the risk in the Amazon is already imminent and this loss would have "profound" implications for the global climate and biodiversity. In a 2021 study by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, which mapped at least 16 tipping points, scientists simulated more than three million possible scenarios at different temperatures and found that "points of no return" in different parts of the planet can also destabilize each other.

But what if in addition to these negative tipping points, there were positive tippings, which indicated a new phase -- accelerated and fed back -- of sustainable and regenerative processes? The concept emerged in a report released earlier this year by the Bezos Earth Fund, SystemIQ and the University of Exeter.

Dubbed "The Breakthrough Effect," the document is subtitled "How to unleash a cascade of points of no return to accelerate the net zero transition," which would be positive inflection points in which technology and new production processes enable sectors of the economy to decarbonize and not return to being as before.

To this end, the authors suggest 10 "turning points" that arise when "a set of conditions is met, allowing new technologies or practices to outperform competitors," offering "an opportunity to rapidly increase the deployment of zero-emission solutions and dramatically reduce global emissions."

"Identifying key opportunities and making relatively small, targeted changes can yield big returns in terms of decarbonization. The high-emission sectors of the economy do not exist in isolation – they are highly interconnected – and zero-emission solutions can influence transitions across multiple sectors simultaneously," the authors point out.

Each turning point was evaluated on the basis of its cost, attractiveness (which includes advantages such as reliability and convenience, in addition to cost) and accessibility (large-scale diffusion, and not just for a few privileged economic actors). As with negative tipping points, positive tipping points work in a ripple effect, which can diffuse change quickly across sectors and make it less reversible, the report concluded.

Check out the 10 positive tipping points:

    1. Energy: solar, wind and storage

The "turning point" for renewables to become the norm is for the cost of solar and wind generation to become lower than that of coal and natural gas generation (this would already make renewables more advantageous also than other fossil sources such as oil). The calculation needs to include the levelized cost of energy (LCOE), that is, the cost in relation to production over the entire useful life of the asset under analysis (such as a power plant). The report recalls that this shift has already reached an earlier turning point, in 2021, when generating additional power, with new projects, became cheaper from solar and wind sources in the vast majority of countries. Storage capacity in batteries is a key and ongoing factor. The critical limiter, at the moment, is accessibility: the networks to transmit and distribute clean energy are not being built at the required speed. This is the main positive tipping point, with the greatest potential effect to contain the climate crisis.

    2. Electric vehicles

In the road transport sector, a rapid shift to electric vehicles is proposed in pursuit of full decarbonisation. The turning point would be when these battery-powered vehicles (BEV) reach selling price parity with combustion vehicles, major emitters of greenhouse gases. According to the report, as more BEVs are deployed, there is a 19% cost reduction each time production is doubled. This change, along with 5 in fertilizers and 6 in steel, are considered the best routed.

    3. Electric trucks

Also in the road transport sector, decarbonization would occur with the development and use of new vehicles and transmission systems of battery electric trucks (BETs) and hydrogen electric trucks. One possible turning point would be when BETs reach the total cost of ownership (TCO) advantage over diesel-powered trucks,

    4. Building heating: heat pumps

The report proposes that heat pumps be a lever in the decarbonisation of residential buildings, as they can be powered by renewable electricity and require between a quarter and a third of the energy to provide the same amount of heat as gas boilers. The tipping point for your deployment will come with alternatives to overcome the practical and time disadvantages of your installation. The report considers this one of the most difficult transitions.

    5. Fertilizer: green ammonia

The use of petroleum-derived fertilizers in agriculture accounts for about 1.4 percent of annual carbon dioxide emissions. According to the report, optimizing this use can reduce emissions by 70% through measures such as: better crop rotation (addition of legumes), combination of fertilizers with the needs of the crops and changes in diet.

For the decarbonization of fertilizers, the production of so-called green ammonia (produced from green hydrogen) and blue ammonia (whose production process removes hydrogen from natural gas and sequesters carbon in the process) are critical and need to become economically and technologically viable within a decade – which could broaden supply chains and reduce cost for other sectors.

    6. Steel: green hydrogen

The production of steel from green hydrogen has been studied and made viable. The turning point to decarbonize the steel industry will be possible with the development of the first wave of green steel mills (about 25 plants) to begin large-scale adoption. Of these, 11 are in different planning phases and are expected to be operational by 2030.

    7. Sea cargo transport: green ammonia

The use of green ammonia in shipping is in the development stage, with around 80 pilot technology projects underway worldwide. For short-distance navigation, decarbonization occurs with electric motors or hydrogen fuel cells. The long-distance one indicates that alternative liquid fuels such as green ammonia and methanol will be needed. The possible turning point will be after the development of the first wave of "green transport corridors", with 5% of global fuel consumption.

    8. Aviation: synthetic fuel

The decarbonization of the aviation sector will be driven by three main solutions: energy efficiency; electric planes powered by hydrogen and battery; and sustainable aviation fuels. Hydrogen and battery aircraft are expected to account for 35 percent of final energy demand by 2050 and the remaining 65 percent to be supplied with sustainable aviation fuels. In this second group, a quarter of the supply is expected to come from biofuels, with limited production, and three-quarters from synthetic fuel, also called PtL (energy-to-liquids), which remains in the demonstration phase, with the turning point being large-scale market entry by 2025.

    9. Food and agriculture: alternative proteins

Three alternative proteins have the greatest potential in the food and agriculture sector: plant-based (PB), microorganisms, and animal cells. A turning point can happen when plant-based alternatives reach the same cost as animal protein and have the same attractiveness to the consumer. The transition is influenced by several non-economic factors, particularly social and cultural norms. After clean energy, this is the second turning point with the greatest potential impact against the climate crisis.

    10. Avoiding changes in land use: valuing nature-based solutions

Nature-based solutions (SBN) need to be used to protect the soil. The turning point may occur when landowners see greater financial benefit in preserving or creating vegetation cover, such as forests, swamps and peatlands, to provide ecosystem services, rather than giving the area another use. The trading of carbon credits is a mechanism that is part of this turning point. The report considers this to be the most challenging change at the moment. After the adoption of clean energy and alternative proteins (points 1 and 9), this would be the transformation with the greatest effect against the climate crisis.

Source: Um só Planeta